馬田喜愛的投資作者

香港經濟日報--各施各法股市見解


章 盛--蘋果日報 (一 味 窩 輪)作者 梁業豪--香港經濟日報及《經濟通》項目顧問
譚紹興--香港投資者學會主席 石鏡泉老師--香港經濟日報研究部主管
薛家寶--香港經濟日報 (股海波浪)作者 陳永陸--蘋果日報 (陸叔講股)作者
東尼 Tony Measor--蘋果日報,壹週刊 (天下第一倉)作者 曹仁超--信報 ( 投資者日記 ) 作者
李庚--英明資產管理有限公司

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投資有道/一周圖輯
B06  蘋果日報  沈振盈
2003-10-26

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實戰理論
牛市二期調整浪展開

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港股上周終於作出較大幅的調整,大市連升6個月,累積了4000點升幅,回落500至1000點也屬正常。筆者早前亦曾作估計,短期阻力位會在12300-12400點附近,此水平亦是一些重要阻力位,特別是期權方面在12400點累積了大量未平倉合約,故此當指數升至此水平應有戒心。

其實上周四之跌市也是有?可尋,若大家記得,過往筆者每一次捕捉浪頂之時都會留意數個訊號,包括期指高水/低水情況,認股證與正股之相對走勢,以及未平倉合約變化等。筆者不是馬後炮,於上周三早上一個電視節目中,早已提出以上3點,指出在周初已出現了期指不斷低水、掃高正股但Call輪未能跟上的情況,兼且期指未平倉合約從90000張急降至84000張等,當日筆者在節目中斷言不作股份推介。?指上周五收市價已跌破了10及20日線,短期將會在11800及12000點關口遇上阻力。以往每次大市略為回落數百點,指數都很快再破頂,「狼來了」的故事,始終有一次真的出現較具殺傷力的牛市二期調整浪。

長線看好分段吸納

到現階段大家都會變得疑惑及迷惘,其實筆者覺得最重要不要被市場的升跌牽?走。大家應好好地部署低位分段吸納的策略,中長線香港基調向好之勢未變,長線仍是要於低位買貨的。

由現在至年底,估計市況仍會反覆調整,入市時機仍有待,暫時部署於11200-11400點才開始吸納第一注,往後若市況再跌便再分段吸納。

中國北方企業投資基金(2324)將於明天掛牌,此集團為瀋陽市及東北三省民企赴港上市融資的窗口公司,主要集資資金是分散投資於該些民企身上。中國北方企業投資基金是以配售形式上市,本身屬封閉式基金,故此沒有作公開發售。此基金主力除了投資於瀋陽市民企外,並會投資於股票市場及其他非上市公司。此基金可助小投資者達到分散投資、分散風險的目的,加上配合專業的投資決策及管理,自能收到降低風險博取高回報的目的。

不過,投資於此基金之入場本金較高,每手為10萬股,同時要預期成交量及流通量較低等問題,一定要用長線投資的策略。

美元?價繼續波動,前周回升後再度回落,暫時美元仍未正式確認跌破支持大位,美?指數仍能穩守91.30點之重大支持。筆者暫時維持美元已見短期浪底之看法,始終近期經濟數據持續向好,美元應不虞大跌。 沈振盈 訊?證券董事總經理

louie@sincerehk.com
 


投資有道/一周圖輯
  B06
                                                                                       蘋果日報
                                                                                                                                                                                            沈振盈 
                                                                                                                                                                                          2003-10-19

  實戰理論
  美元見底不應再看淡

  港股節節上升,?指屢創一年新高,終於升抵萬二點關口,走勢似乎銳不可當,藍籌股
  輪流接力炒上。筆者近兩周一直建議吸納之落後股亦能屢試高位。中移動(941)、和
  黃(013)及中信泰富(267)等皆能創出全年新高,而電盈(008)表現更為可人,在
  跌市中逆市而升。到現階段,?指萬二點成為好淡爭持關口,此乃淡友最後防線,令過
  去一周大市出現拉鋸局面。

  說實話,現在最難估計後市,從表徵上看,期指未平倉合約在周中一度高達9萬張,是
  近數年新高,反映出主導大市之好友並未有平倉計數之打算,就算位高勢危,好友勢將
  力托指數捱至月尾自動平倉結算。另一方面,海外資金似乎轉趨審慎,未有像早前般積
  極入市,令市況停滯不前。更重要的是數月前之升市火車頭之一的地產股正處調整階
  段,而銀行股亦開始升抵重要阻力關口,只要買盤一收斂,大市必借勢調整。

  ?指阻力在12300

  美國近期公布之數據大都頗為理想,相信有助美股及港股中長線表現。暫時來看,港股
  尚未有出現大幅調整的訊號,加上現時已踏入10月下旬,期指未平倉合約仍未有減少之
  ?[象,估計港股仍有上衝的可能,在月底結算前?指應不會跌穿11700點支持,而上望
  阻力約在12300點附近。

  美元走勢方面,在近期之美元跌浪中筆者是少數的仍然看好美元之分析員,主要是覺得
  歐洲經濟相對於美國其實並不怎麼佔優。日圓強勁只是個別例子,並不表示美元是一面
  倒弱勢,起碼歐元、英鎊及瑞士法郎皆未能升回年初高位。筆者月初亦指出歐元在今次
  反彈浪之頂位應在1.17-1.19美元水平,結果在上試1.1850附近便即時回軟。現時之策略
  仍維持逢高沽歐元及其他歐洲貨幣。

  從基本因素分析,美國經濟在過去近年半之美元跌浪中直接受惠,並出現復甦,即是自
  2002年初美國口說強美元,但事實是弱美元之政策已收效。現時美國經濟已復甦,美元
  在跌了25-30%之後,走勢應該轉強。偏偏布殊與七國財長皆指出美元應該有秩序下跌
  ,在一面倒唱淡美元之下,竟然也未能將美元推至年初之低位,兼且大幅反彈,大家會
  否覺得奇怪呢?難道今次是口說弱美元,但實是強美元?若果一隻貨幣跌了25%後,接
  ?茠漱@年再跌20-25%,其經濟將會如何?大家只要想一想亞洲金融風暴便知道,布殊
  明年還要大選,難道會這麼?去唱淡美元嗎?

沈振盈 訊?證券董事總經理

2003/10/19



股市前瞻

蘋果日報
                                                                                                                                                                                                澎偉新
                                                                                                                                                                                          2003-10-19

  投資新語
  資金仍足港股不虞大跌

  ?指終於如市場所預期,在上周二衝上萬二點,雖然當日即時回落,但由於市場資金仍
  然充裕,令到上周尾段3個交易日,指數返回高位,不過成交額則較早前幾個星期為
  低,似乎是顯示曾積極入市的機構投資者,在現水平開始變得較為審慎,尤其是早前被
  一致認為會受惠於政府所推出的穩定樓市措施而被推高的地產股,由於政府未有如預期
  發出「第十招」,令到地產股升勢瞬間被沖淡,成為大市下跌的主要動力。

  不過筆者強調並非看淡本地樓市,筆者同意本地樓市最低潮的時間已經過去,看淡地產
  股走勢的主要原因,仍然是現時的股價水平已充份反映該等利好因素,若果未有更利好
  的因素出現,地產股可以上升的空間非常小,所以在有更利好地產股的消息出現前,又
  或者地產股完成調整前,最好還是對地產股稍作迴避。

  大戶撤離需時

  至於大市在升上萬二點後,走勢反覆,當?指升至接近12100點時,指數便調頭回落,
  跌近11900點時,指數卻重新反彈,加上成交額縮減,似乎是大市走勢將會見頂的先
  兆。不過,筆者並不認為已入市的海外資金可以在大市升上萬二點後即時賺錢離場,令
  指數即時急挫,尤其10月上半個月港股的每日成交額平均達172億元,上周最後3個交易
  日中,除周四達到180億元外,周三及周五兩個交易日之成交額只有142億及155億元。
  因此,要大舉撤離港股基本上不可能,即使是大戶慣用在期指市場上首先大量累積淡倉
  、鎖死現貨利潤,以上周四未平倉合約只有91000多張,以及用萬二點計算,所能鎖死
  的現貨價值約只有546億元,遠低於大戶持有之總值。即是說,大戶需要逐步離場,指
  數在短期內不應作出很大幅的下跌,否則最後可能會自討苦吃。

  彭偉新 御泰證券企業服務部經理

  電郵:castor_pang@i-cable.com

2003/10/19



B04  香港經濟日報  梁業豪
2003-10-18

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投資札記
價值水平定升跌

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本周四收市時,10月份期指未平倉合約總數減少2,127張(2.35%),淨數則減少1,783張(3.20%)。當日期指價值水平從上日的11986上移至12009,顯示淡友大戶帶領淡友散戶開始平舊倉止蝕,並非好友大戶開新倉。依此推算,期指周末前後再升的空間有限。不過,昨早筆者聽到一個對淡友不利的消息,謂好友大戶計劃於下周在現貨市場發動攻勢,將大市進一步推高,迫使更多淡友投降。無論這是否好友大戶出口術的做法,近日港股欠缺能令市況明顯回挫的主動沽盤卻屬事實。

於昨天期指先挫後揚的走勢中,乾坤燭聚焦點從上日的12010下移至11940,活躍區則從11984至12033下移至11939至12018。此外,價值水平見下移至11959,價值區則從11951至11971擴闊至11964至11986。換而言之,若下周一期指能守穩於11959關口之上,市況仍可偏好。若好友能成功於11986 / 12018之上築起新防線,淡友不應強行進攻,浪費彈藥。判斷某個交易日期指的升跌時,本欄會比較價值水平的升跌,而非一般投資者愛用的收市位比較結果。

逆市持倉須加倍小心

  昨早筆者有機會於12030前動用四分一資金補回短線投機部分的期指過市淡倉,但下午依15分鐘圖訊號指示,於11972附近再度平倉走位,下周一才伺機補回。在近日多場游擊戰中,筆者十分清楚自己逆市應戰的處境,故在注碼控制方面非常審慎,並一早計劃了多作走位,不在形勢向好時持有淡倉。請大家翻查過去兩個星期內本欄的買賣紀錄,便會知道,雖然筆者仍未等到港股短期調整的開始,卻已成功累積了可觀的利潤。這與對後市方向的看法無關,純屬策略上的成功。

期指陰陽燭日線圖上,本周二曾錄得「穿頭破腳」利淡轉向形態。雖然其後價位並沒有出現預期中的跌勢,只屬橫行偏穩,以收市價計,該形態的頂部12079至今仍未見失守。由於形態未算受到破壞,大家不宜排除下周港股呈現明顯跌勢的可能性。STC訊號已呈嚴重超買達三個交易日,MACD的Diff在持續跌向零線,於不足的值博率下,筆者並不鼓勵短線投機者持有期指好倉。當然,於形勢向好時,即市順勢小注持有期指好倉圖利還是可行的。

昨午主動沽盤明顯減弱

  全日期指最佳買入價╱最佳賣出價的最高掛盤量為72張(2:32pm)/ 80張(2:33pm),叫價11955 / 11970,代表收市前好淡分水嶺位於11963。期指即市OBV早市於 -287與 +2間反覆向淡,半日收報 -224。下午指標持續回升,高見 +35後才回軟,收報 +4,顯示主動沽盤明顯減弱,淡友選擇退守高位。認股證背馳指數全日收報 -0.104,反映出炒家沒有為下周一市況作部署。期指量比全日收報0.898,恆指量比收報0.958,普指量比則收報0.964。指標顯示午市期指市場交投略降,現貨市場則見交投增加。
 

2003/10/18


認股實戰
港股展望
香港商報
御泰資產管理部董事黃國英
 2003-10-17
 
 

 資金湧入國企股勢強
 

  恆指前日再度突破12000點﹐走勢實在強勁﹐尤其周二才有調整的現象﹐國企股因出口退稅的消息而轉
  弱﹐兩日內已經能夠扭轉弱勢﹐反映出資金流入相當強。

  現時推介買賣認股證﹐卻甚有難度﹐一方面資金流入強勁﹐港元繼續偏強的形勢下﹐應該不會大幅逆轉﹐但另一方面股市一直攀升﹐未見有什麼大調整﹐可是以估值計﹐已經相當昂貴﹐大型地產股的股價對比資產淨值有溢價﹐似乎又欠缺上升空間﹐正股作為投資尚可﹐但認股證要計及時間值的因素﹐對時機的拿捏要求十分高。

  藍籌中應該以匯豐(005) 是最正路的選擇,地產股估值偏高﹐電訊股是市場一直有戒心的類別﹐上升到目前的水平﹐主要原因不外是炒落後而已。雖然資金流向不易猜測,和黃(013) 、中國移動(941) 等股份絕對可以高處未算高,可是這類股份的特色是波動大﹐容易超買及超賣﹐上周和黃認購證走勢領先正股﹐因此有信心和黃會向上突破﹐今周沒有類似形勢﹐電訊股在目前水平﹐並非值博的選擇。
 

  匯豐升勢料維持

  反而銀行股穩打穩蛂A業務上必定受惠於經濟復蘇﹐估值上尚未算太過分﹐資金在其他大型藍籌上欠缺出路,應該會令銀行股強者越強。其實理論上匯豐是有一定隱憂,Household的按揭業務,在債息大幅回升﹐以及早前大幅增長後﹐是大有機會放緩﹐但市場資金追逐股份興趣濃厚﹐因此匯豐升勢有機會維持﹐現時只曾見過些微調整﹐入市策略是惟有追買﹐放棄等待較大的回調。

  (9908) 是較正路的選擇,溢價只剩0.45%,雖然已屬價內輪,槓桿比率卻仍有9.3倍,仍算是頗高風險,建議於1.3元買入,止蝕位放在0.90 元,而目標價則在1.50 元,博匯豐今次升浪到達下一個心理關口115 元,才有一次較大的獲利回吐。其實0.90 元的止蝕位並非太安全﹐但在追入這種升浪的時候﹐惟有應用這種較貼的策略﹐反正調整一旦開始﹐什麼止蝕位亦未必安全。

  上周推介路勁基建(1098) 的表現不錯,很幸運在短時間內已有突破,股源推介始終比認股證容易﹐因為少了時間性的因素﹐防守性會比較好﹐而且沒有市值的限制﹐選擇會比較多。
 

  鋼鐵系業績強勁

  這個星期推介重慶鋼鐵(1053) ,鋼鐵股在今次升浪中,走勢不及其他原材料股份﹐主因是市場擔心明年太多新廠落成﹐但市場擔憂供過於求已好幾年﹐再加上今個季度的業績﹐依然會十分強勁﹐而且美元的弱勢﹐也會減低內地鋼鐵價格的壓力。重鋼在幾隻同類股份中﹐有西部開發的概念,但股價則落後,應該不難再次上試上次的高位3.60 元。
 

  御泰資產管理部董事黃國英


期指若成功上企050,下站升浪目標409
 2003-10-14 09:10

   《運籌帷幄》Wal-Mart 10月份營業額理想,料可到達3%-5%的增幅目標。Motorola第三季盈利高於市
 場預期,eBay被Smith Barney調低投資評級至「沽售」。AOL華納開始就出售華納音樂子公司進行招標,
 暗示公司已決定從音樂行業隱退,公司將改名為時代華納。英特爾的競爭對手先後公布計劃,將開發
 用於手提電腦和大型伺服器的微型處理器。通用電氣於一周內完成多宗重大併購交易,但業務風險亦
 隨之上升。

   昨晚(13日)美元先跌後穩,歐元偏軟;黃金上升,油價微揚。美債走勢回落,長債收報102.63,孳
 息率5.19%。短債收報0.89,息率0.91%。歐股表現全面向好,倫敦港股走勢偏軟,恆生倫敦參考指數則
 收報11940.08,下跌21.89。匯控(0005)於紐約市收報110.23元,較上日港股收市時上升0.73元。今早(14日)
 日股開市後表現顯著向好,日指於8:31am報10965.96,上升179.92。

   昨晚美股表現全面向好,惟買盤不大。道指早市向好,中段橫行偏軟,尾市先軟後升。全晚最高
 位9783.49,最低位9675.57。指數最後收報9764.38,上升89.70,反映出藍籌股走勢向好。Honeywell報升
 1.27美元至28.77美元,通用電氣則報挫0.39美元,表現較為矚目。全晚總成交量降至10.32億股,升降股
 數比率77:23,升降股票成交金額比率61:39。S&P 500指數收報1045.35,上升7.29。12月份期指收報
 1044.40,上升390點子。價位於今早8:30am在GLOBEX市場報1044.60,上升20點子,呈貼水75點子,偏低
 246點子。NASDAQ綜合指數收報1933.53,上升18.22,反映出科技股走勢向好。

   港股方面,昨天收市時,10月份期指未平倉合約總數增加1092張(1.24%),淨數則增加552張
 (1.02%)。價值水平上移至11946,價值區則上移至11833-11876,證明好友大戶引導好友散戶開新倉。好
 友大戶加權平均部署水平上移至11913,大戶市場平衡點則上移至10922。若期指能成功上企12050,下站
 升浪目標為11913+(11913-10922)÷2=12409。

   本欄昨早暫時平掉期指過市淡倉,但今天會於15分鐘圖訊號轉好或小時圖保歷加通道頂部得而復失
 時補回,稍後亦會部署加注造淡的行動。套戥策略組合與全線現貨均按兵不動。至於超短線投機,須
 先看清楚好友於高位的再攻誠意後,才為順勢入市持倉圖利訂策略。《經濟通首席顧問 梁業豪》
 〈網址:etnet.BennyLeung.com〉
 

2003/10/14


石鏡泉老師提提你:

        美股大跌300多點,港股今早(22日)應跟隨下挫,問題是會否在收市前收復一定失地還是一沉不起。

  今日要關注的是成交,如今早急跌而成交多,到今午,市轉穩而成交仍暢旺時,反映在低位有人肯接貨,又或見期指未平倉合約數減持,都反映市底可望轉穩。

  今年2月港股有百輪(窩輪)齊發,這批窩輪多於8月到期,在這批窩輪未全部到期前,港股仍會受壓,要到8月中及之後才可有作為。

  故如恆指於本周有穿10000時,對中長線投資者應是個可以開始吸納有實質盈利之股時。

2002/7/22
 

這幾天要留心的,是6月期指未平倉合約的變化。5月期指未平倉合約,最多時有5.6萬張之多。如6月期指未平倉合約張數減少而溢價見低時,應是好友撤走,如溢價轉高代表淡友撤退。反之如合約張數增加,而溢價見低,則是淡友加壓,溢價轉高,應是好友發力。看波而不看價,分分鐘要付高代價。

2002/06/03
 

**********************************************************************************************

潘玉琪 (香港經濟日報投資理財周刊研究部主管)電郵:
 

以下是筆者對港股的基本看法,部分刊於今期投資理財周刊之封面故事,用以相應英國讀者的意見:

  『以資金流向論,三個月美電不見資金外流跡象,拆息亦穩,反映未有重大資金流出港元,美股跌勢,美元轉弱,相對上,並未使投資者撤出港股。

  理論上,香港經濟比美國還差,而港元亦和美元掛?,美元轉弱,港元亦不能避免,照計港股表現會比美股還要差。但實際上,港股比美股強,原因很簡單,美股轉弱,和恐怖襲擊、會計帳目醜聞及公司盈利未能支持股價有關。其中除了公司盈利外,皆和香港拉不上關係,所以正面衝擊不會比美國嚴重。

  至於企業盈利,恆指市盈率約為16至18倍,比美股30至40倍低得多,現時美股盈利復甦,加上美股跌幅擴大,才將兩者差距拉窄。

  而7月最困擾大市的,是第三季80億盈富(2800)待售,幸好上周四終於認購完畢,港股單日轉跌為升,即月期指更高水77點,近期罕見。不過,好景不長,隨著美股周四轉弱,港股上周五再展跌勢,?指有下試10000點之勢。

  成交方面,明顯見近期成交回落,主要原因,是長科(8222)及中銀(2388)招股,長科凍結散戶資金312億,市場人士估計中銀更凍結散戶資金達414億之鉅。資金短絀,股市當然易跌難升,不過,亦因為中銀上市,吸引了一批中資錢流入本港認購中銀。

  由近月恆指圖可見,近日股市無論升跌,成交俱弱,而期指成交卻保持,便大戶更易以期指操控大市,舞高弄低,散戶入市易小心行事。

  估計中銀於本周四掛牌後,資金解凍,大市方向會更為清晰,如能配合美股反彈,後市會略佳;但如美股跌勢持續,怕港股亦難以獨善其身。不過,無論美股港股,近期跌幅已大,再跌空間相對減少。

  而按一般基金操作模式考慮,7月為第三季首月,通常8月走勢會跟隨7月,如7月未能止跌,8月望大升的機會便會降低,甚至保持跌勢亦未定,投資者宜密切注視中銀上市後港股走勢發展。

  但是,美股預期業績會在第四季轉好,港股亦不例外,以五大港股藍籌計,彭博通訊社綜合證券商預期,市值最大的匯豐(0005)預計每股盈利能增長6.7%,中移動(0941)預計更增加達9.6%,不過,和黃(0013)與恆生(0011)盈利料會倒退,長實(0001)則持平。但以港股藍籌總體盈利增長可達5.7%。

  美股方面,增長更勁,估計美股盈利增長,會惠及港股。

  而分析本地主要股票指數的話,國企預期市盈率最低,但預期增長亦最低,只得2.2%;恆指預期市盈率降至15倍,估計盈利會有5.7%增長;紅籌介乎兩者之間,預期市盈率為13.5倍,但盈利增長預計最勁,會有8.4%。

  基於股市領先於經濟,估計投資者或會偷步入市,在9月預先造好,但升幅要視乎7月、8月跌幅略為調整。

  據大摩估計,恆指在下半年有機會反彈,但仍不脫上落市格局,頂位不過13000點。

  而按7月淡8月續淡的模式,估底不易或不宜,投資者宜待9月,在911周年紀念前後,靜待入市時機。』

2002/7/22
 
 

今期再續英國讀者Andrew Chiang來信,其第三篇內容為﹝來於7月13日﹞:

『I am trying to think what game the local sourced market makers is trying to play. If 20 billion HKD is being tied up in the IPO. It would be tempting to lure these loose money into the market right after the IPO, so that such market maker may pass the new shares to these hapless folks. First I think the BOC IPO shall be priced high to groom a 'hot stock' image. The last few days, other chinese related equities are being accumulated to catch the wave. So every one is hoping there shall be a feeding frenzy right on the IPO day, and those that have already bought the stocks may offload to the next bigger fool that will chase the market the few days after the IPO. While other chinese equities shall have a few good days as well. This is the original grand plan laid down long ago during the IPO development stage. The market shall look to shoot for 11400 and everyone moves the August futures to the long side yet the July futures may not necessary close high at all because of HSBC result on August 5 leaving everyone guessing whether the market will be high going into August, or low before August 5. There shall be big battles as quite a few warrants expire late july/early August. The US market shall have the twitching day on August 25. Is is going to close high or low? Unless there is a rally next week it shall be closing low. That bodes ill for HKG.

The question now is with the deteriorating stock market in US and Europe, that adds a lot of weight to the bear side, making the grand plan difficult for the local bull market makers to playout the original script. The foreign sourced money subsequently plans to exploit this opprtunity to exit HKG, where they have been parking their money since April. That would mean 11400 is a not so probable, while 10000 beomes a real possiblity. In the coming week starting monday, HSBC may start to be sold off to rotate to BOC IPO. There shall be little appetite to drive to market up before the IPO. Volume shall be high in the beginning of week and thin out later.The bull shall try their best not to make the market too too ugly, if they can manage. While the bears shall try to shake up general confidence to maximise their gain going into August 5. I do not think the bull's odds is favouable, because they do not have the momentum, and have lost the initiative. The full bearish mood outside HK makes both bulls/bears scared as the original playact may turn out to be a real collapse the whole world over. How can the bulls drive the market above the 10/20 day lines without the cooperation of the bears? More and more bears really want to cash out this time and wait out for half a year, if not longer. I am not even sure how big a rally it can be in September, as this bear market is different from earlier ones, in that it is a slow step by step degradation in the market. In the next rally up there shall be sellers at every step back up. Who wants to be so brave to stick neck out? This is not one market, it is synchronised move down, whole world over. It is not one fund house, crying it is time now to rally and all other fund houses shall join. It needs to be from the central banks. Are the central bankers wise enough to have a plan that can turn the sentiments around?. Roach of Morgan is right, a double dip is 50% likely. There shall be nothing dramatic that would spark off a rally, but a sudden event shall spark off a fresh sell off. Remember HK market is not oversold, 14 day RSI is at 50. However the 10, 20, 50 week curves are all starting to bend down. If in this week market cannot get back above 10 day MA, the range HK market has been bouncing between shall be broken trigerring a lot of technical selling. Does the HK sourced market maker rich enough to take up the sell off? 97/98 took HK government intervention to bring the slide to a halt. Not even Li is rich enough to be so foolish to support the market at this high level. The BOC float may initiate the breakdown of the HK market, and may be the last big IPO for China for a while, because the bad taste everybody will have experienced.

I was surprised that BOC IPO kept the original schedule. I hope the underwriters know there shall be market turnaround next week the world over. Tonight Dow has broken 8600. I have no position. I shall wait and see what is going to happen next week. I am afraid monday is a big sell off day that shall break the support and spell the long slide down like Dow. The trouble is even though there may be a genuine rally in US and Europe next week, that also shall spell doom for HK because the fat HSI shall be gored as hot money exits HKG to buy beat up shares outside of asia.

I do not blame them. What is the real economy in HK? It is worse than in Y96/97/98. HKG just is so hopelessly in deflational spiral. HSB estimates next year CPI will deflate at 3 % clip rather than 1% this year. We are encouraging our youths to go 'north' for their future, like Phillipine sending their females to work in HK as maids albeit at different higher capacity I hope. Fortune magazine was right to write the article few months ago saying 'who needs HKG'. It is very sad. I feel so so bad. When I grew up in HK I had nothing but hope.I made something of myself. I was lucky to be able to. Nowadays I looked around and tell my son and daughter 'perhaps you two shall never return to HK to live again'. The opportunity I once had is not here in HK anymore. By the way, both of them are in medical schools now. A proud father I am indeed.』

2002/7/16
 

上周提到的英國讀者Andrew Chiang,續有鴻文傳來,頗值各位參考,集思廣益,其第二篇內容為﹝來於7月11日,後經修正再發﹞:

『I think I know the difference between you and me. I am working with futures, and you are working with options. If the market should crash in the next 10 days, they it shall probably to back at 11000 at month end. For me I do not care, as I shall 'hopefully' cover the short and fetch bottom some time before the end, but you are betting on the timing of the crash to be early rather than late. I have a problem with the spread between July and Aug futures. Can it be only the dividend of HSBC 50 points, which is quite a lot? If HSBC is reporting earnings august 5, then that means the market will drive it to very low, and wait for the announcement of bad debt provision. This time it need to budget provision for Brazil. If provision should be high, HSBC shall go down. If no or low provision, the bear can drive it down also because no or not enough provision. Either way early august is low. Are you sure you still are betting on high close in July. If USD is long term low, fund houses may not want to repurchase after the sell off. To non USD fund houses, HSBC (and Hong Kong market in general) earning may be depreciating 10/20 % next 2 years because of USD weakness, but can only at best earn 5 % a year more than last year if South America is not going to knock another 5-10 % a year from the annual USD earnings. If so how can HK market ever to exceed 12000 next 2 years without a near crash. Now HSBC is the tools of defensive player in UK market, sooner than later this stock will be sold down as it is just to fat not to take profit to rotate to other beat up stocks.
 
You could be right; because of what you say is timing. Too many like me is expecting low close in July; the market maker shall drive it higher for both option, and warrant sake. The real bear may not care, as they shall just reopen their shorts and puts at a higher level.
 
I do not buy your fair value Y96 argument; market is often excessively pessimistic or optimistic. The reason we go up to 12,000 from 8900 is because the market is severely over sold after 921. For the market to be able to get high in September, the whole world needs to be oversold. HK is not at this stage. So a crash is to come some time before then. Agree? Now is the timing. I do not know when the crash is to come. I do not think any one in this world knows. It depends on the news, from US say. Good company result will drive market higher, bad accounting will drive the market lower. There is a saying that us corporation shall first come clean if they hid something before, or they want to write the p/l statement down so that next year they result will be exceptionally good. The market is waiting for Japanese company to reveal poor accounting practice. That is also why European market is as poor as the American market. Further more, whole world's TMT debts are leading to potential insolvency, causing a lot of grief to the insurance companies and pension funds because they hold huge amount of now worthless equities and bonds. God forbid; I hope this won't bring down other blue chip companies subsequently. PCCW for the same reason thought better to sell mobile to reduce debt and let TELSTRA to defend the attack later by the bear critics. It is a headache not worth the agony for young Li. He has enough headaches last few years.
 
One last point, in US all the defensive sectors is being sold down one after the other, retail, and pharmaceutical, now military. There is just no place to hide. The bond bulls shall drive the Asian market down sooner than later, because Asian was a defensive play in 1 half 2002. Japanese is cracking, Korean is cracking, and Taiwan is cracking. How can you think Hong Kong can save herself? Mr. Li and China will only protect/buy back their own stocks. Who is to say Y97 crash does not happen again. Can and will HK government again come to our rescue? All it takes is one week to three days to lose 500 points a day. I agree long option is a better play then short option or long future. I can still remember 65000 futures contract in 97/98. This time the problem is there would not be boldness in either bull or bear, because the lesson from that war is there is no bottom to a crash, while there is always ceiling to a rally.
 
I think I am right in calling a 'near' crash, the question is timing. If there is so much liquidity around, the crash can only be a near crash, not a real crash. It is just like musical chair, whoever is short when the bottom is reached. Now I can still short, I pray because it is still too early, the real battle in the world has not yet really begun. Only the cloud is gathering. Battle is on stocks, bonds, and currencies. All we know is yen will be defended at 115. But I do not think yen will not reached 115 more then 3 times. Each time, the stress in the financial market is get tenser and tenser. I do not know what euro shall be perhaps 1.08. A typhoon is coming. The hedge funds bears are sharpening their teeth. The market and central banks are still very reactive, and not proactive. What do you think our Mr. Yim is planning today? What do you think BOC is thinking to night, or Mr. Li? So many people are buying 941 and 5 today. It is so tragic. Goldman is now full bear. Only Morgan is still bull. But remember Morgan is also the last player in most games, when the market sell off another few hundred points because Morgan is selling, the bottom is likely to be reached.
 
I am sorry to appear so bearish. I do not know if I am fooling myself, because I can see the mechanism and gears of the big bear machine grinding. I meanwhile see the people in the process being crushed in the not too distant future. When I saw your article last Friday, I thought you understand my fears. Looks like you and me are not on the same wavelength. To me How can you think 10200 or even 10000 can be a bottom. There is just no telling how low it can get, remember HSI at 7200. We assume the market will turn around in September. What if this 'near' crash, do cause real damage to either real companies or real sentiments, or real economy, coupled with terrorist attack, double bottom in us economy will bring whole world economy down. Then all bets are off. Cash is king.
 
You say you thought April 9900. That is because of the hot funds parking here's doing. Now some hot fund those not Hong Kong sourced may be leaving, back to 9600? Cash is king. As you say the market maker shall eat us as meal. Who is buying who is selling today? The market has not drop does not mean it is not going to drop. HSI is back down below 10/20 day moving average. Very bad sign. Next few days if a bigger drop, the 20/10 day moving average may not intersect, then we are due to go to 9600, as the technical traders were expecting the 10 day to cut up at the 20 moving average line next week. Even if the market should go down further only next week, the 10 day line may turn down and cut 20 day line the second time. Every thing will hinge on the world market this week and next. I am planning to cover all my shorts tomorrow. I found if Thursday is low, Friday tends to be low as well, vice versa. London is low by 33 points. I think we are going to 10300 tomorrow.』

2002/7/15
 
 

   大市急試10400,是危亦是機,當然亦有讀者不同意這論點,其中一位在英國之
 讀者來電郵告之其看法,頗值各位參考,但礙於寫稿前仍未獲該讀者回函應允,所
 以只登出筆者之回覆:

   『個人略不同意你的看法,但十分之欣賞你的分析和推理,是下過真功夫的。
 我認為港股雖會受美股拖累,但情況不會太相同:

 首先,恐怖襲擊對象是美國,而且是精神打擊大於實際損失;
 其次,會計醜聞對亞太股市的影響估計不及美國大,美國公司造假賬是其管理制度
 和會計制度引發出來的,香港稅制精簡,兼公司管理層不用理會業績而取得金錢回
 報,且認股權作花紅的做法並不普遍,所以香港會計醜聞對港股影響不會太大;
 此外,美股回到97年水平,但港股是回到96年水平,而非97,港股仍比美股便宜,
 很多藍籌的收入來源,並非單靠本地。

   但我亦認同你的分析,其中中銀招股,使香港投資者將短線資金轉移作招股認
 購備用,使近兩日港股成交下降,這是明顯易見的,亦阻慢了盈富認購。不過,盈
 富持續發售的實質影響其實不是太大,只不過大戶以此作藉口,推低大市而已。而
 中銀招股,長時期的影響不會太大,指數基金認購中銀,會沽出東亞、恆生,一般
 非經常性投資的散戶,或會短期沽之,或會長持一年以上,短炒投機者會很快出
 貨。所以中銀招股所吸納的20億美元,雖會短暫造成沽壓,但相信應是「短暫」
 的,因為年底還有中電信招股。

   現時港股的最大問題,是美股所帶來的外圍影響,以及美元轉弱成勢所引發或
 將會引發的資金外流,港股向由資金帶動,這一點是頗負面的。控制不好,又或出
 現突發性事故,港股是有機如閣下所說,下試10000點或以下。

 10600是太高,10400較好,6月亦預測會到9900,但結果不到,所以在10400/10600
 之間買入已滿足,要慶祝911,到8月中才升是合理推論,但港股應會在中銀掛牌前
 回升,這是個人認為港股未必跟美股走的原因。』

2002/7/11

 昨日提到的英國讀者,名叫Andrew Chiang,終肯應允筆者登錄其電郵來容,以
 下是其對7月後市之看法,由7月6月收市傳來,頗值各位參考,其進一步推論,會稍
 後登出,有相同或不同意見的讀者,亦可來電郵筆者探討,集思廣益,其原文為:

『first on fundamentals, I believe that july is a bear month.

a. if 8 billion tracker funds can drive the market down 1800 points. the 2 billion usd bank of
 china ipo will be as bad if not worse. I do not know what fraction of the ipo is to be taken up
 in hk as verses foreign funds. It would be substantial. as much as 8 billion hkd, say. that
 means another 1800 points to go.

b. usa market has been sliding down from beginning of year. hk market in second quarter
 instead of following the usa market. the 'hot' funds are safe haven money coming to hk to
 park and drove the index to 12000. these money could be the original hk money invested in
 usa. how that there may be summer rally in usa these money may be going back to usa. this
 is for usa sourced money.

c. for europe sourced money, they parked in hk in april and also wish to return to europe.
 these money once gone may or may not even return, because if usd is now on multiyear bear
 trend, such money may best be deployed in anywhere else in se asia where currency may be
 appreciating like the won, twd, and yen. In april when these money first came, they did not
 even know usd is beginning to weaken. now they want to exit with a bang to make up the
 currency loss they have been suffering.

3. US market is now firmly in bear trend, usd is firmly in bear trend, hk market will be
 doomed. the only saving grace is china equity.

4. this 'hot funds' is what keeping hk market ok in first half 2002. the bottom is going to fall
 off now in july. the next rebound in august is for foreign funds aiming to invest in china
 market and short covering from the slide from 12000.

5. the forthcoming ipo from china for the coming year is huge. we are going to have very
 wild swings because before every ipo some money is also parked in hk for the ipo
 investment beforehand they want to drive the market up for the ipo. this is the bull funds.
 such bull funds will get weaker and weaker as china sucked up more and more, and alan
 greenspan finally will tighten liquidity as usa comes out of the weak trend to head off
 liquidity driven inflation. hk market is at least 6 months late from hkd deflation, even though
 economically hk may be ahead of us because of china export, that is if us economy is not
 going into double dip.

 6. The whole world only asian market is doing ok or good first half 2002. HK market
 because of hkd usd ties and deflationary trend should really be behaving like us market.
 They have all been testing and below 911 levels, hk market is maintained by these hot funds.
 with the forth coming departure of these hot funds probably european hk will test 911 low in
 the next year.
  
 now technically,

1)the reason the day before you felt bullish but yesterday you felt cautious, is because the
 day before some bears square off their position, get their shorts covered from tracker funds,
 that includes merell lynch. if there is no fund outflow, there should be an technical rebound.
 that is why the future option is placed for 11400 calls. Then yesterday, half the tracker funds
 is still unclaimed, and all the major fund house is selling hkbank. the european funds are
 starting to exit. that is why the future options is now set at 9600 and 9000. the technical
 rebound group realised that their earlier stock options on HKbank will need to be defended,
 and so if they should fail they need to drive the market another step, that is why 9600, and
 9000. Yet 10000 may be able to be defended. depending if the us sourced funds will or will
 not join the party driving the hk market down. because the fund houses need to behave
 nicely to get future ipo business, they may not want to be too bearish. So this drive down will
 likely be sharp and brief but not too low.

2)we will know who is bull and who is bear in the next few days. warbug and normura and
 salomon probably is going to sell 2800 now and put a stop before 10000 because they are
 floating for bank of china. that is what mr. leung from salomon. that is why warbug and bnp
 (mr. leung was there before) normura has not cover tracker funds shorts yet, even though
 they have been selling 2800 from 12000. they would not cover 2800 shorts until the parking
 funds finished their selling just in case. they are the bulls.

3)the hkbank sellers now is jpmorgan deutshe and many others. these are bears really. it is
 interesting to see if merrll lynch will be. ml has squared off the 2800 shorts the day before.
 2800 can be used to sell down the market as well if ml wants. to, ml, ms and goldman have
 been buying 941 last 2 days, so are they going to join the bear party?

4) the battle ground is in hkbank, just look at the put thousands of stock put options for the
 stock, no other stock is like that. the exit of hotfunds will be in july the excuse will be brazil.
 the bull/bear ratio is or who is bear/bull probably already set from the put option position
 previously set. they know the battle coming. they just do not know when us summer rally is
 going to start or not and when. they probaly now know it will start soon, the hot funds so
 now are exiting.

5) the problem now is is it going to be this week or the end of the month. the prospect is so
 grave that bank of china head this week did not say anything about the floating date of bank
 of china. it all depends when the hot funds decide. they just have to wait or even cancel. If
 they cancel they can tuen some bears back into bull for those bear who is selling hkbank to
 buy bank oc china ipo.

6) I have a personal problem that I do not know how much further this short rebound will
 carry on, 10800, 11000, 11000 or even higher.

7)the us market may retest 911 low this week becuase of likely poor retail sales, and
 michigan sentiments. then it may not either way the market is going down. if us goes down,
 it go down, if us does not, hot fund exit.』

2002/7/12